Thursday 29 Jan 2026
Washington’s doubts about the post Maduro transition
In Washington, there's a growing sense that the post Maduro transition in Venezuela may not be unfolding quite as smoothly as it looks on the surface. Publicly, the Trump administration says it's seeing cooperation from interim President Delcy Rodriguez. Privately, though, U.S. intelligence appears – far less convinced. According to new exclusive reporting from Reuters, recent U.S. intelligence assessments are raising doubts about whether Rodriguez is actually prepared to follow through on Washington central demand formally severing Venezuela's ties with U.S. adversaries Iran, China and Russia. U.S. officials have been clear about what they want. They expect Rodriguez to expel foreign diplomats and advisors tied to those governments intelligence apparatus, and to decisively realign Venezuela away from what Washington views as hostile influence in the Western Hemisphere. But so far, that break hasn't happened. Rodriguez’s swearing-in ceremony earlier this month was attended by representatives from Iran, China and Russia. Since taking office, she has yet to publicly announce any move to cut those relationships. Intelligence officials now say it's unclear whether she's fully on board with the US strategy, or simply managing Washington while preserving old alliances. Now, this scepticism about Venezuela's interim president isn't entirely new. Sources told Reuters that concerns about Rodriguez reliability were already present before the US operation that removed Maduro. And while she's taken steps designed to stay in Washington's good graces – releasing political prisoners and authorising the sale of 10s of millions of barrels of oil to the US – those moves may just be tactical. It's also worth noting that the CIA Director John Radcliffe's visit to Caracas, where he met directly with Rodriguez to discuss Venezuela's political future. Reuters says it's unclear whether that meeting changed the intelligence community's assessment. For now, doubts remain. Those doubts carry real consequences for Washington's broader plan, which depends on Rodriguez delivering stability without pulling the U.S. into a deeper military role. If she were to fully break with the US rivals, it could unlock significant American investment in Venezuela's energy sector. If she doesn't, it risks undercutting the administrations ability to steer events from a distance. At the same time, U.S. officials privately acknowledge they don't see an immediate alternative. Rodriguez is deeply tide to Venezuela's oil sector and the intelligence community has previously assessed that figures loyal to the old Maduro system were best position to keep the country functioning in the short term. That leaves Washington in a bind, backing a leader that it doesn't entirely trust. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado is viewed as a longer term option. Intelligence reporting suggests she lacks the deep connections to the security services and oil industry needed to govern right now, even though she remains popular with Venezuelans and well regarded inside the White House. All of this unfolded against the backdrop of yesterday's story, when Rodriguez publicly rebuked Washington, saying she had, ‘had enough of U.S. intervention’. That statement added to the sense that her cooperation may be conditional and fragile, which brings us to the second part of this story. On Capitol hill, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has now made the administration’s position unmistakably clear. In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio warned that the US is prepared to take further military action if Venezuela's interim leadership strays from US expectations. While he emphasised that the U.S. is not at war with Venezuela and that there are no American troops on the ground, he also made it clear that force remains on the table if cooperation breaks down. In his testimony, Rubio outlined Washington's objectives, including opening Venezuela's energy sector to U.S. companies, ending subsidised oil exports to Cuba, directing oil revenues toward the purchase of American goods, and dismantling networks tied to narco trafficking and sanctioned actors. Rubio also said that Rodriguez understands the stakes, saying she is, ‘well aware of Maduro's fate and that her own self-interest aligns with advancing U.S. objectives. That warning comes as the administration continues to normalise ties with Caracas, including notifying Congress this week of plans to send additional personnel to prepare for reopening the US Embassy. Rodriguez, for her part, says communications channels with Washington are, ‘respectful and courteous’, even as intelligence officials remained wary. The question that remains is whether Delcy Rodriguez is genuinely charting a new course for Venezuela or simply buying time.
Bad news for Moscow as 14 European countries announced coordinated action to disrupt tankers accused of violating sanctions and maritime rules
More nations are now declaring war on Russia's so-called Ghost fleet, taking direct aim at the oil revenue that continues to keep Vladimir Putin's war machine running. It's part of a broader, intensifying campaign to choke off Russia's ability to sell oil outside the sanctions regime, and the net is tightening. According to new reporting, 14 countries bordering the Baltic and North seas, along with Iceland, have committed to actively obstructing tankers suspected of violating sanctions or International Maritime rules. These governments say they will no longer simply track or monitor suspect vessels, but intervene, stopping ships, demanding documentation and treating those that fail to comply as affectively stateless. At the centre of this effort is Russia's Ghost Orb shadow fleet, hundreds of ageing tankers operating under flags of convenience, opaque ownership structures and deliberately disabled tracking systems. These ships allow Moscow to move oil quietly, often at prices above the G7 price cap funnelling billions of dollars back into the Kremlin despite Western sanctions. This crackdown builds on months of US-led enforcement already underway. The U.S. has been targeting sanction evasion routes aggressively, particularly those running through Venezuela. Over recent months, the U.S. military has seized 7 Venezuela linked tankers carrying sanctioned crude, part of a sustained campaign to disrupt oil flows tied to Russia and its partners. France has also stepped up enforcement. Just yesterday, French naval commandos intercepted the tanker ‘Grinch’ in the Alboran sea. French authorities detained the ships Indian captain, while prosecutors in Marseille opened a preliminary investigation. That seizure followed another French tanker interception just days earlier, marking the second such operation in as many weeks. These actions signal a clear shift. Sanctions are no longer just financial instruments or diplomatic warnings. They are being enforced physically at sea by multiple countries. Under International Maritime law, vessels that failed to properly identify themselves, falsify registration, or operate without valid documentation, can be treated as ships without nationality. That legal framework is now being used more aggressively, giving coastal states justification to board, detain and seize vessels. From Moscow, this represents a direct threat to one of the few economic life lines still functioning. Oil revenue remains critical to sustaining Russia's military operations, funding weapons production and cushioning the domestic impact of the war. And for Western governments, this campaign does carry risk. Intercepting tankers raises the possibility of legal challenges, diplomatic retaliation, or even maritime confrontations. But officials appear increasingly convinced that passive enforcement is no longer enough. The message being sent is rather unmistakable. The era of looking the other way while ghost tankers quietly move sanctioned oil is coming to an end. What comes next will depend on how far this coalition is willing to go and how Russia chooses to respond as its shadow fleet finds fewer and fewer places to hide.
