Fri 23 Jan 2026
Trump’s Warning
President Trump is issuing what may be his clearest warning yet to Iran as the Mullahs brutal crackdown on anti-regime protesters pushes the confirmed death toll past 5000. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One late Thursday night, the president said the US now has an Armada heading toward Iran. Trump kept the statement ambiguous, saying, “we have a lot of ships going that direction just in case. I'd rather not see anything happen, but we're watching them very closely. We have an Armada heading in that direction and maybe we won't have to use it”.
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Arabian Sea on Thursday and is now heading toward the Gulf of Oman, placing it within striking distance of Iran. Accompanying here are several Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers, expanding US cruise missile, air defence and strike capabilities across the region. Additional air and missile defences are also being reinforced. These systems are being positioned to protect U.S. forces and regional partners against potential Iranian ballistic missile retaliations. Meanwhile, an entire squadron of F15 fighter jets has deployed to the Middle East, significantly expanding US air power. Taken together, this build up gives the president a variety of options while deliberately injecting uncertainty into Techron's decision making about whether, when and how the US might intervene. Trump's comments landed as Iran's internal crisis continues to worsen. Human rights groups now estimate that more than 5000 people have been killed in the regime's violent crackdown on nationwide protests, while nearly 30,000 people have been detained. Many are being held without access to legal counsel and honestly, that's probably the least of their worries as many are also facing torture and abuse by Iranian forces. The numbers of killed and detained are difficult to independently verify due to Iran's ongoing near total Internet blackout, but U.S. officials and. International organisations warn they are almost certainly conservative estimates. Even so, according to the UN, the scale of the violence already makes this the deadliest crackdown by the Islamic regime on its own people since it came to power during the 1979 revolution. Now, Trump has repeatedly framed the military buildup as a response to that brutality, arguing that pressure, both diplomatic and military, has already had an effect. As a reminder, it’s been nearly two weeks since Trump told the Iranian people that, quote, help is on its way. But the president seemed to pull back from ordering strikes last week Under pressure from regional allies, even as Iran's regime continued to make a mockery of human rights. But the president recently claimed his tough rhetoric and threats against the Mullahs had prompted the regime to cancel nearly 840 planned executions. That's a claim he repeated on Thursday. But Tehran is pushing back on that hard. On Friday, Miron Stop prosecutor publicly denied that claim of Trump's, calling it completely false, suggesting no such cancellation of executions has occurred, while also insisting that no foreign pressure has or will influence judicial decisions. Given the current regional climate, such a publicly defiant response is significant. Tehran is signalling that it will not be intimidated by rhetoric alone, even as U.S. forces mass around its periphery. At the same time, Washington is making clear it now has the military posture to act quickly.
Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US
For the first time since Russia launched its full-scale invasion nearly four years ago, Ukrainian, Russian and US negotiators are sitting down in a trilateral format, a notable diplomatic development. Even as fighting on the ground continues. Negotiators from all three countries met Friday in Abu Dhabi, with talks expected to extend into Saturday. While the meetings are taking place at a technical level, meaning no heads of state are involved, the format alone marks a shift. Since February 2022, direct engagement between Kyiv and Moscow has been extremely rare, with talks typically conducted separately through US mediators or intermediaries. But expectations for a breakthrough this weekend are already low, the scepticism is being shaped in large part by what happened just hours before the talks formally began. On Thursday, Russian President Putin held marathon overnight meetings in Moscow with President Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jerrod Kushner. The talks stretched past 3:00 AM and were described by the Kremlin as frank and constructive. The Russian officials made clear that Moscow's core demands remain unchanged. According to Kremlin advisers, any peace settlement must rest on what Moscow calls the ‘Anchorage Formula’, a framework that Russian officials say was discussed between President Trump and Putin at a summit last August in Alaska. Under that formula, Russia would control all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and freeze current front lines elsewhere in occupied eastern and southern Ukraine. In practise, that would require Kyiv to relinquish territory that Russia has failed to actually capture despite nearly four years of grinding warfare. It's a concession that Ukrainian President Szalinski has repeatedly ruled out, and one that polls suggest most Ukrainians strongly oppose. Zelensky confirmed ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks that territory would be the central issue on the table, calling the future of the Donbas key to any settlement. But the gap between the two sides remains unchanged. And that may be just out. Putin wants it – using peace, as distraction, while his forces continue to pummel Ukraine's energy grid. Intensifying Russian strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure have plunged the country into what officials now describe as the worst energy crisis of the war. A devastating strike on Kyiv’s power stations on the 9th of January in particular has left the country reeling amid harsh winter conditions. Major cities including Kyiv have seen widespread power and heating outages as temperatures hover well below freezing. More than 3,000,000 residents in Kyiv alone are now facing prolonged shortages of electricity, water and heat after the 9th of January attacks Kyiv’s. Mayor urged residents to leave the capital if they could. In the two weeks that followed, mobile phone data suggests nearly 6,00,000 people left the city, but then again, many can't. Ukraine's largest private energy producer warned Friday that without a ceasefire to halting attacks on power infrastructure, conditions are approaching what it called a, ‘humanitarian catastrophe’. That context is impossible to separate from the diplomacy currently underway. The timing of Russia strikes has fuelled questions in Kyiv and among Western officials about whether Moscow is negotiating in good faith or are they perhaps using the talks to delay and distract attention while conditions on the ground worsen. Western officials are still wondering if Putin is negotiating in good faith and some in Washington are framing the talks as a sign of progress. U.S. officials stress that simply getting all three sides into the same room represents movement. Zelensky confirmed Thursday that a separate deal on US security guarantees for Ukraine is now complete, while the Abu Dhabi meeting’s carry symbolic weight, a fundamental problem remains – Russia's demands, including its territorial demands, have not softened in Moscow as signalled, it will continue pursuing its objectives by military means. If diplomacy fails.
